With just over a year until the next presidential elections, what are the chances of Macron being re-elected?

 The next presidential elections in France will be held in April 2022. Although, no president has been successfully re-elected since Chirac in 2002, polls currently suggest that Macron may buck this trend, but with a year still to go, this is far from being a ‘fait accompli’.

Reasons for Macron to be cheerful.

Polls

Current polls are likely to give Macron some confidence as we approach the presidential elections. All have so far predicted that the outgoing president will receive a slightly smaller percentage of the votes in the first round as his nearest challenger, Le Pen.

However, even if Le Pen is successful in reaching the second round, it is probable that enough voters will rally behind Macron in order to prevent the Far Right from coming to power. Despite attempts to de-toxify the Rassemblement National (which have met with some success), it is not seen as a normal party, and is considered by a substantial number as a threat to the Republic. In this situation therefore there is likely to be enough people willing to hold their nose and vote for Macron to ensure his victory.

The lack of an alternative

Another factor that places Macron in a fortunate position is that neither in the case of the PS nor Les Républicains has a single undisputed candidate emerged.

This is a major problem as the president is the central figure in the French political system. Since 2002, the presidential and legislative elections have been held in the same year, with the president being chosen first, before the composition of the National Assembly is decided. As voters want a president to be able to rely on a parliamentary majority to govern, the outcome of the presidential elections now generally determines the result of the legislative elections.

There are several reasons why no single candidate has emerged on the Centre Right.

Firstly, the 2017 elections saw the departure of several key figures, as Sarkozy, Fillon and Juppé all left politics following their defeat, or shortly after. They had all played an important role in national political debate on the Right, especially between 2012-2017, but their dominance prevented other younger figures from gaining media attention and building a profile. There was therefore no obvious replacement when all three stepped down.

Secondly, Macron appointed some of the more prominent figures from Les Républicains, such as Edouard Philippe, Bruno Le Maire, and Gérald Darmanin, who might have gained a personal following, into his government.

Finally, a particular difficulty for Les Républicains is that many of Macron’s policies, particularly in economic terms, have been ones that appeal to the Centre Right electorate. The party has therefore struggled to oppose them. The major criticism from Les Républicains has been to argue that Macron’s reforms do not go far enough – not one likely to grab the attention either of the electorate or the media.

A further problem faced by the Right is that there is currently no agreement over how their presidential candidate will be chosen. In 2016, the party held a primary. However, this led to bitter infighting. The electorate which engaged in the primary became loyal to the candidate they supported, rather than to the party as a whole. This weakened the party’s chances in the following presidential elections, as when Juppé was defeated, a section of his supporters left to join Macron, rather than rallying behind Fillon.

The fate of François Fillon is another reason that has reduced faith in the primary as a method of selecting candidates. Soon after being announced as the candidate of Les Républicains, he was implicated in the Penelopegate scandal. There was no agreement within the party over whether to reverse the decision of the primary and choose another candidate. Fillon therefore remained and led Les Républicains to defeat in an election they had long been predicted to win. This has left many figures unwilling to support the use of a similar selection method ahead the 2022 elections.

Yet no alternative to a primary has been proposed, and many in the party seem currently to want to wait in the hope that a single candidate emerges. There is no guarantee that this would be the case, and were several members of the Right to stand, they would split the vote and probably all be eliminated.

The Left is also in difficulty.

The Parti Socialiste, which had dominated the political scene along with the Centre Right from 1981, gained only 30 seats in the 2017 legislative elections, and has largely faded into the background.

Macron further exploited divisions within the political system by appointing figures from the Left to his government, including Jean-Yves Le Drian who had been a Defence Minister in the Hollande government, Florence Parly, who had been a Secretary of State in the Jospin government between 2000-2002 and Christophe Castaner who had been a Socialist député. Furthermore, 36% of all LREM députés elected in 2017 had at one time or another been members of the PS.

Like the Right, the Left also faces the problem of finding a single candidate. The Socialist Mayor of Paris, Anne Hidalgo, and former minister, Arnaud Montebourg have both been suggested as wishing to stand in 2022. Jean-Luc Mélenchon will represent La France Insoumise while the Greens will hope that they might build on their success in the 2020 local elections. If all, or even several of these candidates to stand and compete for the same vote, none would be likely to be present in the second round.

However, despite the difficulties faced by the opposition on the Right and on the Left, there are still several reasons that suggest Macron may fail to be re-elected.

Reasons why the outcome of the 2022 presidential elections is still uncertain

Unpopularity

Macron has not proved to be a particularly popular president. He has often been considered arrogant and authoritarian, and likened to Jupiter, the king of the Gods. The lack of a viable alternative for many voters has prevented this from posing too much of a problem, but it could threaten his position in the future.

Lack of a real party

Another potential problem facing Macron is that his party, La République en Marche was only officially formed after the legislative elections of 2017. It resembles a personal support group, where members are bound together through loyalty to the president (a not-uncommon feature among French political parties).

The fragile nature of LREM is demonstrated by the fact that 44 députés have left the party since June 2017. During his presidential election campaign, Macron promised to reach across the political spectrum. However, since coming to power, many of his policies have been ones that appeal to the Right. As a result, many of those he had attracted from the Left have become disillusioned and have abandoned the party.

The party therefore faces certain disadvantages. As a new movement, and particularly one not yet fully anchored in the French political landscape, voters who lose confidence in Macron have no reason to remain loyal to the party, and will look elsewhere.  

Possibility of a challenger

With over a year to go before the next election, a new challenger could appear, capable of winning the support of many of those who are say that they will vote to re-elect the current president. A recent Ifop survey published in Le Figaro found that while 67% of voters predict that the second round of the 2022 presidential elections will be a contest between Macron and Le Pen, 70% do not want this to be the case.

A credible challenger could therefore gather enough support from undecided voters, and those who current intend to vote for Macron for want of an alternative, to prevent the outgoing president from reaching the second round.

Predictions?

Macron is therefore in a relatively strong position to gain a second term, but with over a year to go before the elections, he cannot be complacent. Whether he will succeed in his bid for re-election will depend on the factors outlined above. In addition, history has shown that there is always the possibility of an unforeseen event completely changing expectations. Only time will tell what will happen, but this blog will follow the various twists and turns of the election campaign.